Archduke Franz Ferdinand, deeply disillusioned by Austria-Hungary's performance and losses during World War I, and fueled by a growing sense of Austrian nationalism distinct from Hungarian interests, seizes the opportunity presented by the war's chaos to declare the independence of the Kingdom of Austria. This bold move, made perhaps in secret negotiations with sympathetic elements within the Austrian army and populace, would not be a simple declaration. It would require a carefully orchestrated campaign.

Phase 1: Securing Support and Resources: Franz Ferdinand, leveraging his considerable popularity amongst certain segments of the Austrian population and his existing network of loyalists within the military, begins a clandestine operation to secure support. This involves discreet meetings with key military commanders, influential politicians, and prominent industrialists. He promises them autonomy, economic stability, and a future free from the perceived burdens of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Simultaneously, he secretly begins diverting resources – funds, supplies, and potentially even troops – away from the joint Austro-Hungarian war effort and towards his own independent Austrian forces. This would require careful planning and the skillful manipulation of existing supply lines and communication networks.

Phase 2: The Declaration and Initial Conflict: The declaration of independence itself would be a carefully staged event, likely timed to coincide with a significant military setback for Austria-Hungary, or perhaps a moment of internal political weakness within the empire. The declaration would be broadcast widely, appealing to Austrian patriotism and highlighting the perceived injustices and inefficiencies of the dual monarchy. This would immediately trigger a conflict. The Austro-Hungarian army, initially caught off guard, would likely respond with force, leading to a civil war within the empire. The loyalty of various army units would be tested, with some potentially siding with Franz Ferdinand and others remaining loyal to the Emperor.

Phase 3: International Implications and Alliances: The international community would react with a mixture of surprise, concern, and opportunistic maneuvering. Germany, Austria-Hungary's primary ally, would be forced to choose a side, potentially leading to a major shift in the balance of power in Europe. Italy, already wavering in its commitment to the Central Powers, might see this as an opportunity to further its own interests. The Entente powers (Britain, France, Russia) would likely exploit the situation, potentially offering support to Franz Ferdinand's independent Austria in exchange for strategic concessions.

Phase 4: The New Austria and its Future: If successful, Franz Ferdinand's independent Austria would face immense challenges. It would need to establish its own government, economy, and military. The country would likely be smaller than the historical Austria-Hungary, potentially encompassing only the predominantly German-speaking regions. Its relationship with its neighbors, particularly Germany, Italy, and the successor states of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, would be crucial to its survival and long-term stability. The internal political landscape would be volatile, with potential conflicts between different ethnic and political factions. The success of this new Austria would depend on Franz Ferdinand's leadership, the loyalty of his supporters, and the evolving geopolitical landscape of post-World War I Europe. The war itself might continue, but with a dramatically altered front and a completely different set of alliances and power dynamics. The long-term consequences for Europe would be profound and unpredictable.